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"seg": "Mainline", "prob": 55, "obs": 10, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA1655", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 54, "obs": 10, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA2189", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 46, "obs": 10, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA2605", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 39, "obs": 12, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA2809", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 35, "obs": 1, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA1623", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 33, "obs": 6, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA2229", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 18, "obs": 7, "conf": "low" } ], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 75.4, "any": 75.4, "coverage": "full", "hours": 2.4, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA1775", "route": "ORD-LGA", "p": 75, "obs": 7, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "YYZ", "IAD" ], "joint": 96.5, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 5.1, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3601", "route": "ORD-YYZ", "p": 99, "obs": 18, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA3636", "route": "YYZ-IAD", "p": 99, "obs": 27, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA6116", "route": "IAD-LGA", "p": 99, "obs": 25, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "TVC", "IAD" ], "joint": 94.9, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 5, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA5504", "route": "ORD-TVC", "p": 99, "obs": 6, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA6129", "route": "TVC-IAD", "p": 97, "obs": 7, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA6116", "route": "IAD-LGA", "p": 99, "obs": 25, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "RIC", "IAD" ], "joint": 97.9, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 4.9, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4427", "route": "ORD-RIC", "p": 99, "obs": 13, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA4485", "route": "RIC-IAD", "p": 100, "obs": 13, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA6116", "route": "IAD-LGA", "p": 99, "obs": 25, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "ROC", "IAD" ], "joint": 96.6, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 4.8, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3629", "route": "ORD-ROC", "p": 98, "obs": 10, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA4485", "route": "ROC-IAD", "p": 100, "obs": 13, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA6116", "route": "IAD-LGA", "p": 99, "obs": 25, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "ROA", "IAD" ], "joint": 97.8, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 4.8, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4186", "route": "ORD-ROA", "p": 99, "obs": 9, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA4418", "route": "ROA-IAD", "p": 100, "obs": 14, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA6116", "route": "IAD-LGA", "p": 99, "obs": 25, "conf": "medium" } ] } ] }, "ORD-STL": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:39.002Z", "flights": [ { "fn": "UA2000", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 40, "obs": 5, "conf": "low" } ], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.6, "any": 99.6, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.5, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4576", "route": "ORD-STL", "p": 100, "obs": 21, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "CMH-EWR": { "ts": "2026-07-23T15:30:50.441Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.5, "any": 99.5, "coverage": "full", "hours": 2, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4567", "route": "CMH-EWR", "p": 100, "obs": 17, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "IAD", "RIC" ], "joint": 98.8, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 4, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4387", "route": "CMH-IAD", "p": 100, "obs": 9, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA4473", "route": "IAD-RIC", "p": 100, "obs": 18, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA4604", "route": "RIC-EWR", "p": 100, "obs": 13, "conf": "medium" } ] } ] }, "ORD-IND": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:40.389Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.2, "any": 99.2, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.3, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3707", "route": "ORD-IND", "p": 99, "obs": 27, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "ASE-DEN": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:35.783Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 98.6, "any": 98.6, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.2, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA5772", "route": "ASE-DEN", "p": 99, "obs": 15, "conf": "medium" } ] } ] }, "MAF-IAH": { "ts": "2026-07-23T15:30:53.993Z", "flights": [ { "fn": "UA2281", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 62, "obs": 4, "conf": "medium" } ], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 98.8, "any": 98.8, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.7, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4001", "route": "MAF-IAH", "p": 99, "obs": 17, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "SDF-ORD": { "ts": "2026-07-23T15:30:54.464Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.4, "any": 99.4, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.8, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4563", "route": "SDF-ORD", "p": 99, "obs": 7, "conf": "medium" } ] } ] }, "PIT-EWR": { "ts": "2026-07-23T15:30:54.924Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.7, "any": 99.7, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.8, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4457", "route": "PIT-EWR", "p": 100, "obs": 17, "conf": "high" } ] }, { "via": [ "IAD", "RIC" ], "joint": 98.6, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 3.9, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4550", "route": "PIT-IAD", "p": 99, "obs": 14, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA4473", "route": "IAD-RIC", "p": 100, "obs": 18, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA4604", "route": "RIC-EWR", "p": 100, "obs": 13, "conf": "medium" } ] } ] }, "STL-ORD": { "ts": "2026-07-24T16:56:53.879Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.7, "any": 99.7, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.6, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4183", "route": "STL-ORD", "p": 100, "obs": 19, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "EWR-DCA": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:39.471Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.7, "any": 99.7, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.6, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4457", "route": "EWR-DCA", "p": 100, "obs": 18, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "CLE-ORD": { "ts": "2026-07-24T16:56:54.344Z", "flights": [ { "fn": "UA490", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 30, "obs": 14, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA2443", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 25, "obs": 17, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA609", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 10, "obs": 6, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA1673", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 5, "obs": 16, "conf": "high" } ], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 97.7, "any": 97.7, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.8, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3575", "route": "CLE-ORD", "p": 98, "obs": 5, "conf": "low" } ] } ] }, "IAD-LGA": { "ts": "2026-07-24T12:02:34.810Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 98.8, "any": 98.8, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.5, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA6116", "route": "IAD-LGA", "p": 99, "obs": 25, "conf": "medium" } ] } ] }, "ORD-CLE": { "ts": "2026-07-24T12:02:35.736Z", "flights": [ { "fn": "UA1502", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 56, "obs": 12, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA2652", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 48, "obs": 19, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA2389", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 31, "obs": 6, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA1488", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 25, "obs": 8, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA457", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 17, "obs": 22, "conf": "high" } ], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 98.6, "any": 98.6, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.6, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3422", "route": "ORD-CLE", "p": 99, "obs": 15, "conf": "medium" } ] } ] }, "CMH-ORD": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:41.316Z", "flights": [ { "fn": "UA493", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 37, "obs": 2, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA622", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 32, "obs": 8, "conf": "low" } ], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.2, "any": 99.2, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.7, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4597", "route": "CMH-ORD", "p": 99, "obs": 4, "conf": "low" } ] } ] }, "EWR-CMH": { "ts": "2026-07-24T16:56:55.743Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.4, "any": 99.4, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.9, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4590", "route": "EWR-CMH", "p": 99, "obs": 12, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "IAD" ], "joint": 97.6, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 3.1, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3511", "route": "EWR-IAD", "p": 98, "obs": 14, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA4414", "route": "IAD-CMH", "p": 100, "obs": 14, "conf": "high" } ] }, { "via": [ "RIC", "IAD" ], "joint": 99, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 4.2, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4176", "route": "EWR-RIC", "p": 100, "obs": 19, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA4485", "route": "RIC-IAD", "p": 100, "obs": 13, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA4414", "route": "IAD-CMH", "p": 100, "obs": 14, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "IND-EWR": { "ts": "2026-07-24T16:56:56.192Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 98.5, "any": 98.5, "coverage": "full", "hours": 2.1, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3567", "route": "IND-EWR", "p": 98, "obs": 17, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "IAD" ], "joint": 96.7, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 3.2, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3997", "route": "IND-IAD", "p": 99, "obs": 20, "conf": "high" }, { "fn": "UA3577", "route": "IAD-EWR", "p": 98, "obs": 9, "conf": "low" } ] }, { "via": [ "ORD", "YYZ" ], "joint": 96.6, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 5.1, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3539", "route": "IND-ORD", "p": 99, "obs": 11, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA3601", "route": "ORD-YYZ", "p": 99, "obs": 18, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA3705", "route": "YYZ-EWR", "p": 99, "obs": 36, "conf": "high" } ] }, { "via": [ "ORD", "CMH" ], "joint": 97.7, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 5, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3539", "route": "IND-ORD", "p": 99, "obs": 11, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA4607", "route": "ORD-CMH", "p": 99, "obs": 10, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA4567", "route": "CMH-EWR", "p": 99, "obs": 17, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "ORD", "DTW" ], "joint": 96.5, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 4.9, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3539", "route": "IND-ORD", "p": 99, "obs": 11, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA5232", "route": "ORD-DTW", "p": 99, "obs": 22, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA3666", "route": "DTW-EWR", "p": 99, "obs": 15, "conf": "medium" } ] }, { "via": [ "ORD", "PIT" ], "joint": 97, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 4.8, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3539", "route": "IND-ORD", "p": 99, "obs": 11, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA3464", "route": "ORD-PIT", "p": 99, "obs": 11, "conf": "medium" }, { "fn": "UA4457", "route": "PIT-EWR", "p": 100, "obs": 18, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "EWR-YYZ": { "ts": "2026-07-24T16:56:57.123Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99, "any": 99, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.8, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3555", "route": "EWR-YYZ", "p": 99, "obs": 19, "conf": "high" } ] }, { "via": [ "IAD" ], "joint": 97, "any": 100, "coverage": "full", "hours": 3.3, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3511", "route": "EWR-IAD", "p": 98, "obs": 14, "conf": "low" }, { "fn": "UA3515", "route": "IAD-YYZ", "p": 99, "obs": 14, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "DEN-ASE": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:37.611Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.1, "any": 99.1, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA5779", "route": "DEN-ASE", "p": 99, "obs": 23, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "ORD-CVG": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:38.078Z", "flights": [ { "fn": "UA2148", "seg": "Mainline", "prob": 15, "obs": 15, "conf": "medium" } ], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.7, "any": 99.7, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.5, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA4174", "route": "ORD-CVG", "p": 100, "obs": 15, "conf": "high" } ] } ] }, "TVC-ORD": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:40.850Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.1, "any": 99.1, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.5, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA5752", "route": "TVC-ORD", "p": 99, "obs": 1, "conf": "low" } ] } ] }, "DEN-SAF": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:41.785Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.3, "any": 99.3, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.3, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA6031", "route": "DEN-SAF", "p": 99, "obs": 9, "conf": "low" } ] } ] }, "IAH-TUL": { "ts": "2026-07-25T07:09:42.256Z", "flights": [], "itineraries": [ { "via": [], "joint": 99.2, "any": 99.2, "coverage": "full", "hours": 1.7, "legs": [ { "fn": "UA3991", "route": "IAH-TUL", "p": 99, "obs": 24, "conf": "high" } ] } ] } }, "routes": { "DEN-SFO": { "label": "Denver → San Francisco", "tz": "MT", "sweetSpot": "~noon–6 PM departures", "avoidNote": "5–6 AM bank is MAX-heavy (0% fleet); UA2633 is a 757-300 (0% fleet)", "roundTripPartner": "SFO-DEN", "flights": [ { "fn": "UA1812", "dep": "1:25 PM", "aircraft": "A321neo", "prob": 57, "obs": 11, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "best", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA1561", "dep": "11:20 AM", "aircraft": "A321neo / 737-900", "prob": 49, "obs": 19, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "good", "onRoute": false }, { "fn": "UA1007", "dep": "5:54 PM", "aircraft": "A321neo", "prob": 39, "obs": 17, "conf": "high", "verdict": "good", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA1389", "dep": "7:25 PM", "aircraft": "A321neo", "prob": 44, "obs": 16, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "good", "onRoute": false }, { "fn": "UA1450", "dep": "12:25 PM", "aircraft": "A321neo", "prob": 39, "obs": 13, "conf": "low", "verdict": "good", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA2367", "dep": "5:15 AM", "aircraft": "737 MAX 9", "prob": 33, "obs": 6, "conf": "low", "verdict": "risky", "onRoute": false }, { "fn": "UA2123", "dep": "9:10 PM", "aircraft": "A321neo / 737-800", "prob": 39, "obs": 21, "conf": "high", "verdict": "good", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA1301", "dep": "6:00 AM", "aircraft": "MAX 8 / 737-900", "prob": 31, "obs": 13, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "risky", "onRoute": false }, { "fn": "UA2633", "dep": "3:47 PM", "aircraft": "757-300", "prob": 20, "obs": 2, "conf": "low", "verdict": "risky", "onRoute": false }, { "fn": "UA1506", "dep": "9:43 AM", "aircraft": "A321neo / A319", "prob": 19, "obs": 8, "conf": "low", "verdict": "avoid", "onRoute": true } ], "connections": [ { "via": "ASE (Aspen)", "legs": "UA5779 + UA5745", "prob": 97.6, "hours": 3.7 }, { "via": "SLC (Salt Lake City)", "legs": "regional pair", "prob": 97.7, "hours": null }, { "via": "CLD (Carlsbad)", "legs": "regional pair", "prob": 98.2, "hours": null }, { "via": "BOI (Boise)", "legs": "regional pair", "prob": 97.5, "hours": null } ], "confirmed48h": { "asOf": "2026-07-23", "note": "Confirmed Starlink tails on this route in the next 48h at last refresh", "list": [ "UA2123 · Jul 23 · N54570", "UA1450 · Jul 24 · N54552 (A321neo)", "UA1812 · Jul 24 · N14557 (A321neo)", "UA1506 · Jul 25 · N94556", "UA1812 · Jul 25 · N14517", "UA1007 · Jul 25 · N14549" ] } }, "SFO-DEN": { "label": "San Francisco → Denver", "tz": "PT", "sweetSpot": "~4–7 PM departures", "avoidNote": "UA1671, UA1479 and UA301 draw non-Starlink tails; early bank is weak", "roundTripPartner": "DEN-SFO", "flights": [ { "fn": "UA1214", "dep": "5:30 PM", "aircraft": "A321neo", "prob": 60, "obs": 9, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "best", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA1430", "dep": "4:10 PM", "aircraft": "737 / MAX mix", "prob": 48, "obs": 14, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "good", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA2019", "dep": "7:56 PM", "aircraft": "737-800 / MAX mix", "prob": 35, "obs": 22, "conf": "high", "verdict": "good", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA2436", "dep": "6:56 PM", "aircraft": "narrowbody mix", "prob": 35, "obs": 20, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "good", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA540", "dep": "12:43 PM", "aircraft": "A321neo (mixed WiFi)", "prob": 27, "obs": 11, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "ok", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA1233", "dep": "6:15 AM", "aircraft": "narrowbody mix", "prob": 24, "obs": 10, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "ok", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA301", "dep": "9:08 PM", "aircraft": "narrowbody mix", "prob": 10, "obs": 15, "conf": "medium", "verdict": "avoid", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA1479", "dep": "5:00 AM", "aircraft": "narrowbody mix", "prob": 7, "obs": 5, "conf": "low", "verdict": "avoid", "onRoute": true }, { "fn": "UA1671", "dep": "12:00 PM", "aircraft": "narrowbody mix", "prob": 0, "obs": 2, "conf": "low", "verdict": "avoid", "onRoute": true } ], "connections": [ { "via": "CLD (Carlsbad)", "legs": "regional pair", "prob": 97.8, "hours": null }, { "via": "PSP (Palm Springs)", "legs": "regional pair", "prob": 97.8, "hours": null } ], "confirmed48h": null } }, "knownTails": [ "N103SY", "N105SY", "N106SY", "N107SY", "N108SY", "N109SY", "N110SY", "N113SY", "N114SY", "N116SY", "N117SY", 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